The problem is with the Market application. It's horrible.
That being said, I don't have a top 5 app, not even a top 100 app for that matter, but I do make between 50 and 20 dollars a day from it. Better than nothing, and the trend is upward.
What prevents a startup from creating an alternative marketplace that accepts all sorts of mainstream payments methods, works within and outside of the US, and doesn't suck? It was my understanding that Android, unlike the iPhone, could install applications from elsewhere.
You, however, do not address either what makes you think that or where would Apple be in you scenario.
As thing are today, there is nothing to suggest that Apple are losing steam or that Android is gaining such at a higher rate. It is true in probably every respect of the two platforms, but it is especially true when it comes to the respective app stores. So in that case my prognosmification would be that, even if you're right and Android is where the iPhone is today in a few years, Apple's platform would have grown too by then, maybe even proportionally to Android.
Which does not mean one should not develop applications for Android or that they shouldn't "plan for it". But expecting that there is explosive growth just around the corner is absolutely unrealistic.
If they would bring the HTC Hero in to multiple providers they would see a pretty significant jump in users I would imagine.
Although, that new Nokia looks pretty great, I might be switching to it if T-Mobile doesn't end up getting the Hero, bad choice ignoring the Hero for the one they used for the mytouch.
I absolutely think your correct. I fully expect Android to eclipse the iPhone in market share within the next 3 years. I say that with a couple of caveats, however:
1. Google has to get serious about competing with Apple. They need to adopt multi-touch, and they need to do it NOW. I get there is a legal question around it, but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube.
2. Google needs to show that they're serious. The app-store for Android is a mess (as the article clearly articulates). There is a lot of money to be made there, but Google needs to step up to the plate and make that a vibrant eco-system. They need to be Microsoft to Apples..well.. Apple. Be more developer friendly, more marketing friendly, and let the openness of their system eclipse the closed off world of the iPhone.
If they do that, Android should be a huge win. They've built the technology. Just as S60 dominates the smart phone market today, Android is similarly positioned. It can support a lot of price points and a lot of different form factors. That variety allows for a huge number of devices to collectively drive that share through the roof.
Since the device is more open, it creates an environment for developers to build truly killer apps that utilize the full system in a much more advanced way. Again, that is predicated on Googles ability to bring a truly robust store to their phones. If they do, that further increases Android's viability and gives them a marked advantage over the iPhone.
Google is REALLY close with this.. they just need to take the next step.
I don't think supporting a lot of form factors and "price points" (i.e. hardware capability) is necessarily a recipe for success. The baseline hardware has to be pretty capable, e.g. including a 3D graphics chip, generous memory, ample storage, etc. The phone can't be too cheap, or apps will run on some Android installations and not on others, leading to platform fragmentation.
If anything, something like Vista's machine performance score could be implemented, with the lowest-scoring element being the total score.
1. Poor availability of app store in many countries in the world compared to iPhone
2. Ability to purchase apps outside the appstore - I bought an app from an author's website directly, paying by Paypal.
3. Fewer actual handsets in use worldwide.